Almost a minute to midnight: Cambridge helps launch open course on nuclear weapons as global tensions rise

“An open-source online textbook and course on the current state of nuclear weapons, along with possible futures and global annihilation potential, has been launched by the University’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), at a time when nuclear sabre-rattling is firmly back in the headlines. At the heart of the new course is an examination of how these weapons shape today’s security environment, from geopolitical alliances to the potential for cyber-attacks on warhead facilities, and the dire need for democratic participation in nuclear debates. “With the end of the Cold War, so many were relieved of the anxiety that nuclear war could be imminent,” said Prof S.M Amadae , an expert on nuclear security, who joined CSER last year as its director. “Unfortunately, in the 21st century, the threat of proliferation and the escalation to nuclear war are growing once more, but a generation of researchers and arms control experts have passed on. It now falls on the shoulders of our generation to provide accessible knowledge of the existential risks of nuclear war.” Amadae developed the new resources with colleagues at CSER and the University of Helsinki in Finland, which is just one example of a nation where nuclear weapons are back on the political agenda in a major way. Historically, the Finns took a firm anti–nuclear weapons stance. However, Russia’s war on Ukraine has seen a “shift in public sentiment” according to Amadae, with Finnish President Alexander Stubb even running his campaign on openness to nuclear sharing. In a video interview for the University’s YouTube channel, Amadae argues that we are seeing the start of a new nuclear arms race, as post-war global orders teeter on the brink, and a new breed of ‘strongmen’ leaders lean into escalatory nuclear rhetoric. “Just in the last decade we have seen the US, Russia and China all undergoing a nuclear revolution, with major revamping and upgrading of their weapon systems as well as their nuclear command and control systems,” said Amadae. From Russian aggression and Ukrainian retaliation, which has already seen strikes on nuclear infrastructure, to the US and Israel’s war on Iran over nuclear arms ambitions, the risks of nuclear conflict keep rising. Amadae points out that this year’s Doomsday clock announcement from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists placed humanity at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest we have been to existential destruction in 79 years of warnings. China is reportedly increasing its missile stockpiles, while North Korea, a rogue nuclear state, seeks to expand its capabilities. Countries like South Korea, Saudi Arabia and even Japan – site of the worst nuclear atrocities in history – have started to debate whether to remain non-nuclear. Trump’s instability and threats to NATO have led European nations to look at bolstering nuclear “deterrents”, with Macron announcing an expansion of France's arsenal earlier this year, and German and Polish politicians discussing the possibility of hosting nuclear warheads. “The announcement by Macron suggests France might be trying to step into that role of supplying some of the nuclear deterrence for Europe if the United States is falling behind as an ally,” said Amadae. However, for Amadae, it is the UK in the “driver’s seat” of European nuclear proliferation, with the recent reacquisition of B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs, after having dispensed with them in the 1990s. “These are thermonuclear bombs that have a yield of up to 50 kilotons, where the Hiroshima attack was ten kilotons, so that’s a huge destructive capability.” Amadae argues that this action by the UK may even violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. “The UK leadership is tacitly saying yes, everyone should have nuclear sharing or nuclear weapons, without even really looking at what scenarios would they be used under, or how it works with NATO.” In the video, Amadae also addresses questions of how our digital world and the era of artificial intelligence could affect the risks posed by nuclear weapons. “In nuclear decision-making, where leaders may only have about 15 minutes, they might default to AI systems, and we know that some systems tend to favour rapid escalation.” “In democratic societies, it’s fundamental that citizens understand nuclear weapons and their implications, from the financial, political, and strategic, as well as the technological, and demand greater transparency,” said Amadae. “Open access educational resources offer key tools to empower citizens to face existential risks and demand action from the representatives.” Ultimately, Amadae says that shifting more towards existential risk has – perhaps counterintuitively – made her increasingly optimistic. “Many people would be willing to contribute to a better future, they just don’t know how, and it is up to us to help inform them.” “The biggest challenge is overcoming cynicism and the sense that current trajectories are inevitable. I believe we can create very different futures.” The open-access textbook Nuclear Weapons, Planetary Risks, and Human Consequences: What Every Citizen Needs to Know , a collaboration between the universities of Cambridge and Helsinki, is available to download from the University’s online repository. It also forms the basis of an open university course on the topic on the Helsinki website. The new Director of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk warns that a new nuclear arms race may be underway, as more countries consider or seek to expand their arsenals. “The biggest challenge is overcoming cynicism and the sense that current trajectories are inevitable Prof S.M Amadae Nuclear weapons are back in the headlines, here’s what you need to know Nuclear weapons are back in the headlines, here’s what you need to know Video of Nuclear weapons are back in the headlines, here’s what you need to know Jonny Settle Prof S.M. Amadae, Director of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk The text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License . Images, including our videos, are Copyright ©University of Cambridge and licensors/contributors as identified. All rights reserved. We make our image and video content available in a number of ways – on our main website under its Terms and conditions , and on a range of channels including social media that permit your use and sharing of our content under their respective Terms. Yes

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