Britain’s two-party era is ending, but the roots of fragmentation run deep

“The 2026 local and devolved elections have confirmed a long-term trend in British politics: the two-party era is ending. Sara Hobolt traces the roots of the transformation of the party system to Brexit and argues that 10 years after the referendum it’s still shaping British politics. Enjoying this post? Then sign up to our newsletter and receive a weekly roundup of all our articles. Reform UK was the clear winner of the 2026 English local elections. But beyond the immediate winners and losers, these elections signals something more significant, namely the collapse of the two-party dominance in British politics. The results revealed a fragmented political landscape with Reform and the Greens making major gains, while both Labour and the Conservatives suffered substantial losses. The “ predicted national share ” analysis by the BBC, which calculates party support if the whole country gone to the polls, reveals a five-way split in electoral support. Reform UK is out in front with 26 per cent of the predicted support, followed by the Greens at 18 per cent. Most significantly, more than two-thirds of the electorate would have backed parties other than Labour or the Conservatives, both predicted to have below 20 per cent of support. This was not simply a bad night for the governing party, but rather a sign that British party politics in fracturing. Source: What the election results show us in maps and charts – BBC News In many ways, Britain is beginning to look more like the rest of Europe politically. Multi-party competition has replaced stable two-party dominance, mainstream parties are losing ground to challengers, and political conflict is increasingly organised around identity politics. The rise of Reform UK also reflects the broader advance of the populist right across Europe. The long decline of partisan loyalties This fracturing of party politics revealed in the local elections did not emerge overnight. It reflects long-term changes in the relationship between voters and political parties. Over the past decades, British voters have become increasingly detached from traditional party loyalties and more willing to switch between parties . As party loyalties have eroded, voters have become more open to new political identities and more willing to support challenger parties . The traditional class-based structure of British politics has also declined in importance, increasingly replaced by new demographic divides structured around education and age. In many ways, Britain is beginning to look more like the rest of Europe politically. The Brexit referendum accelerated these trends dramatically. In our recent book, Tribal Politics. How Brexit Divided Britain , James Tilley and I argue that the 2016 referendum did not simply decide Britain’s relationship with the European Union. It also created two powerful and enduring political identities: Leavers and Remainers. These identities quickly became central to how many voters understood politics, themselves, and others. The strength of these identities helps explain why Brexit has continued to shape British politics long after the formal process of leaving the EU had ended. The referendum transformed what had previously been a relatively distant policy issue into a deep social and political divide. In Tribal Politics , we argue that this happened because three conditions came together. First, Brexit became the subject of intense and high-stakes political conflict. Second, citizens were compelled to take a side in the referendum and expressed their position through voting, campaigning, and political engagement. Third, the Brexit divide cut across existing party loyalties, forcing voters to reconsider their traditional political attachments. Together, these dynamics transformed Brexit into a durable political identity with over 60 per cent of British people still identifying as Leavers or Remainers. Brexit identities and the breakdown of two-party politics The emergence of Leave and Remain identities has also made it easier for voters to abandon long-standing party loyalties and support challenger parties. Brexit identities often proved stronger than traditional partisan attachments and cut across established political alignments. The 2016 referendum did not simply decide Britain’s relationship with the European Union. It also created two powerful and enduring political identities: Leavers and Remainers. The 2019 European Parliament elections provided the clearest early sign of this transformation. Labour and the Conservatives together won just 23 per cent of the vote, while Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party came first and the strongly pro-Remain Liberal Democrats came second. For a moment, British politics looked entirely reordered around the Brexit divide. The 2019 general election appeared to reverse this trend. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives secured a large majority on the promise to “Get Brexit Done”. At the time, this seemed to suggest a return to conventional two-party politics, as the two traditional parties attracted three-quarters of the vote. But the apparent restoration of stability was temporary. Even though Brexit no longer dominates the headlines, it continues to shape the underlying structure of British electoral competition. The 2024 general election already pointed towards a more fragmented party system, as support splintered across five significant parties in England (and more across the UK). The local elections represent more than a mid-term backlash against the government. They point towards a deeper transformation of British politics. The collapse of Conservative support in 2024 illustrated how Brexit identities continue to organise electoral behaviour. Most Conservative Leave voters who defected moved to Reform, while Conservative Remain voters tended to move towards Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Rather than voters aligning primarily along party lines, electoral competition increasingly operated through two broader political blocs : a Leave bloc consisting mainly of the Conservatives and Reform UK, and a Remain bloc made up of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales. Most switching between 2019 and 2024 occurred within these blocs rather than across them. The local elections show Brexit still matters The 2026 local elections demonstrate that even on the eve of the 10 year anniversary of the Brexit referendum, the divide it created still shape British politics. Reform UK performed especially strongly in areas that voted heavily for Leave in 2016. According to analysis by Sir John Curtice , Reform averaged around 40 per cent of the vote in wards where more than 60 per cent voted Leave. In contrast, the party averaged only around 10 per cent in areas where fewer than 40 per cent backed Brexit. At the same time, Labour and the Conservatives have both struggled most in many Leave-supporting areas, suggesting that Reform’s success reflects not simply dissatisfaction with the government, but a deeper realignment rooted in the political divisions exposed by Brexit. The local elections therefore represent more than a mid-term backlash against the government. They point towards a deeper transformation of British politics. While the old two-party system was built on relatively stable class-based loyalties and strong partisan attachments, these foundations have weakened over time . Brexit accelerated this process by creating powerful new political identities that cut across traditional party lines and encouraged voters to think differently about politics. As a result, British politics increasingly resembles the fragmented and polarised party systems seen elsewhere in Europe. The 2026 local elections have revealed just how far the transformation of British politics has already progressed, and how the Brexit referendum continues to cast a long shadow over British politics nearly a decade later. Enjoyed this post? Sign up to our newsletter and receive a weekly roundup of all our articles. All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of LSE British Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics and Political Science. Image credit: Jacek Wojnarowski on Shutterstock The post Britain’s two-party era is ending, but the roots of fragmentation run deep first appeared on LSE British Politics .

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