Local elections signal the end of the Starmer government

“No government does well in “mid-term” local elections. But unless polling has been dramatically wrong, the 2026 local elections will be brutal for Labour. Eunice Goes makes the case for why this signals the beginning of the end of the Starmer government, but warns that uncertainty is what comes next. Enjoying this post? Then sign up to our newsletter and receive a weekly roundup of all our articles. It is entirely normal and expected that parties in government suffer significant losses at local elections at roughly the midpoint of their terms. After all, the few voters who bother to turn up at the polling station use the opportunity to send a message to the party of government. This is often referred to as the “mid-term blues” of a government. But judging by the projections presented in a variety of surveys that have been conducted since the beginning of the year the losses Labour is expected to suffer at England’s local elections and in the elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd on Thursday suggest something bigger than mere mid-term blues. Indeed, they suggest an existential threat to the Labour Party and in particular to the Prime Minister Keir Starmer. For months pundits and polling surveys have been chronicling Labour’s prospects. The most used words to describe them are a “ total bloodbath “, a “calamity “, and a “ wipe-out “. It turns out these words are not hyperbolic. The various surveys conducted in the last months point out to that calamitous scenario. Labour is projected to have its worst results in 50 years. What the polling is showing Polling from More in Common suggests that Labour can lose up to 1,500 councillor seats at Thursday’s local elections in England. Indeed, in England, Labour is being squeezed by Reform in councils across the Midlands, Sunderland and by the Greens in cities like London, Birmingham and Manchester. Labour is projected to have its worst results in 50 years. In London, Labour is at risk of losing control of Camden, Lewisham, Hackney, Islington, Haringey, Southwark and Lambeth. Similarly, an MRP poll by YouGov suggests that there will be many close races between Labour and the Greens in Brent, Ealing, Hackney, Haringey, Hounslow, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham and Waltham Forest; between Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Merton and between Labour and the Conservatives in Croydon, Enfield and Redbrige. In Scotland, the YouGov MRP poll indicates that the SNP, who has been in power in Holyrood since 2007, is on course to win a majority of seats (67 seats) to the Scottish Parliament while Labour is estimated to win no new seats and just retaining their existing 15 seats. This is an extraordinary result for the SNP considering that Scottish voters are craving for change as indicated by the More in Common MRP poll. It turns out that this time Reform UK is the repository of that hope. In Wales, voters are also yearning for change. Polling from More in Common suggests that Labour is poised to lose its dominance of Welsh politics and to be relegated to third position after Plaid Cymru, who is expected to win a plurality of votes, and Reform UK who is expected to become the second largest party in the Senedd. YouGov MRP polling in Wales suggests a similar scenario. While Labour is expected to win only 24 seats on 13 per cent of the vote, Plaid Cymru are projected to win 43 seats. In the meantime, Reform UK and the Greens are expected to make big gains, winning 30 and 10 seats respectively. It is worth noting that the projections for the local and Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections confirm the trajectory of unpopularity the Labour government has experienced since the 2024 general election as well as the by-election defeats in Runcorn and Helsby in 2026 and Gorton and Denton in February of this year. Stagnation with Starmer or uncertainty with the unknown… Judging by the frenzy in the Labour benches of the last weeks, if these projections become the reality on May 7 the Labour Party will enter into panic mode. It has been clear for months that Labour is preparing to depose Starmer as leader . If the growing unpopularity of the government already offered reasonable grounds to question Starmer’s suitability to lead the party into the next election, the defeat in Gorton and Denton, and his recent handling of the Peter Mandelson affair , where he blamed others for his poor judgement, have convinced many in the Party that the Prime Minister needs to go. It has also been known for months that the different potential candidates to the leadership have been on manoeuvres. There are talks of deals between candidates and plots afoot, but the reality is that the timing or the political circumstances of each candidate are far from ideal. The favourite of the soft left, Andy Burnham must first overcome the obstacle of being allowed to become a parliamentary candidate to the next Labour vacant seat. He will have to convince Labour’s National Executive Committee to let him run and then he must win a parliamentary seat. For that he must wait for the September’s elections to the NEC where it is expected that a new executive will not block Burnham’s attempt to become a parliamentary candidate. The only certainty about what happens next is Starmer’s unwillingness to go gently into that night of political oblivion. The other soft left favourite Angela Rayner faces difficulties of her own. She will not be able to win the leadership while she waits for result of the investigation of her tax affairs by HMRC. Finally, the candidate of the Labour right Wes Streeting, who was never a favourite with the PLP, lost some of his star power due to his proximity to the disgraced Peter Mandelson. The fact that all of the three candidates are flawed has led to wild speculation about the moves and ambitions of Labour figures like the deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell, the Environment Secretary Ed Miliband or the Defence Secretary John Healy who could either stand as candidates to the leadership or as caretakers who would ensure an “orderly transition ” to a new leader. To compound to these personal difficulties the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran and its negative impact on living standards and economic outlook suggest that it is not in the government’s (or of any of the potential candidates to Labour’s leadership) interest to plunge into a leadership election in the immediate period following Thursday’s elections. In these circumstances Starmer may be awarded a few more months (or even a year) in power. The hope of several grandees of the party and of some ministers is that he agrees to an “orderly transition ” whereby he accepts to stay as leader and Prime Minister for a set period of time. This would give time to Andy Burnham to be elected to the Commons and to Rayner to solve her tax problems. However, the idea of an orderly transition may not suit all contenders to the leadership. Wes Streeting may take advantage of the immediate difficulties of Rayner and Burnham and launch a leadership challenge shortly after the election. At the time of writing there are rumours that Rayner is preparing to trigger the leadership election to neutralise Streeting. In short, Labour’s future is up for grabs. The only certainty about what happens next is Starmer’s unwillingness to go gently into that night of political oblivion. According to the generally well-informed Ailbhe Rea , Starmer is planning to “set out his stall and fight”. The Prime Minister’s unwillingness to go and the feverish mood of the PLP suggest that Labour’s immediate prospects are either stagnation with Starmer or uncertainty with whoever will wear the Labour crown. Enjoyed this post? Sign up to our newsletter and receive a weekly roundup of all our articles. All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of LSE British Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics and Political Science. Image credit: FotoField on Shutterstock The post Local elections signal the end of the Starmer government first appeared on LSE British Politics .

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