Opinion | The Illusion of an End: Washington’s Strategy of Managing War without Fighting

“In Washington, every word is weighed carefully. When Donald Trump announced that “military operations have ended,” it was less a straightforward assessment than a tactical move amid a complex political landscape. This declaration was essentially an effort to sidestep the War Powers Resolution, which requires the administration to explain any extended military involvement to Congress. What appears to be an “end of war” is, in reality, a legal rebranding of the situation. In the US, three main forces are pulling in different directions. First, Congress, both chambers, wants to avoid another endless war in the Middle East, especially since the public is weary of long, costly interventions. Second, the military establishment knows that any direct clash with Iran would not be quick or clean; it would likely open multiple fronts from the Gulf to Iraq and possibly beyond. Third, there is the electoral angle, in which every military choice is tied to the president’s image with voters, who are increasingly sensitive to fuel prices and economic security. What we are seeing now is not truly a “withdrawal” but more a game of brinkmanship. The US administration is trying to maintain deterrence without slipping into war. The ongoing naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz and the constant threat of military action are balanced by the opening of a limited negotiating channel, a careful mix of pressure without escalation. On the flip side, Iran is keenly reading the US stance. It knows Washington is not seeking a full-blown war, but it also cannot afford to appear as though it is backing down. Tehran is advancing calculated negotiating proposals while holding its regional influence. It is banking on time: the longer tension lingers without actual conflict, the more domestic pressure will build on the US administration. Dr. Marwa El-Shinawy Insights from Washington think tanks, such as the Brookings Institution and the Council on Foreign Relations, highlight a complex concern. Their analyses do not describe an “end of conflict,” but rather a “repositioning phase.” The general view is that both sides have entered a sort of tactical truce, which seems more about buying time than building peace. On the economic front, the situation is trickier than it appears. Any disruption to oil flows through the Gulf would hit the US market hard. With inflation still a serious issue at home, the administration cannot afford a military operation that might send prices soaring. Energy stability thus becomes a key, albeit hidden, factor in every decision made. Forecasts center around three main scenarios. First, the maintenance of the current situation, neither war nor agreement, which seems most likely in the short term, as it meets the minimum interests of both sides. Second, the possibility of a limited diplomatic breakthrough, perhaps through indirect mediation, leading to a longer period of calm but without a real solution. Third, and most dangerous, is a miscalculation, an ill-timed strike or incident in the Gulf, that could quickly reignite the conflict, given the already charged atmosphere. The irony is that all parties claim they do not want war, yet their actions keep the possibility alive. This is not so much a contradiction as a reflection of today’s international politics: managing risks rather than eliminating them. In the end, what is unfolding is neither the end of escalation nor a clear beginning, but rather a state of limbo managed with extreme precision from Washington, where every phrase is as carefully calculated as military actions. The real question now is not whether the war has ended, but: How long can the United States maintain this tenuous balance before it is disrupted, either by choice or by chance? Dr. Marwa El-Shinawy – Academic and Writer The post Opinion | The Illusion of an End: Washington’s Strategy of Managing War without Fighting first appeared on Dailynewsegypt .

Summary generated from the RSS feed of Daily News Egypt. All article rights belong to the original publisher. Click through to read the full piece on www.dailynewsegypt.com.