What do the English local elections tell us about higher education?

“This blog was kindly authored by by Harriet Coombs, Senior Analyst at the Tony Blair Institute. You can find analysis of the Senedd election results here and analysis of the Holyrood results here . Last week’s local elections were not simply a difficult set of results for Labour. They reflected something broader: a growing frustration with a political and economic status quo that many voters increasingly feel is no longer delivering. That frustration is reshaping the political landscape. Reform made significant gains across parts of the country that feel economically and culturally overlooked, while the Greens continued to consolidate support among younger and more metropolitan voters. The result is a more fragmented electoral map, with parties competing across increasingly divergent coalitions and priorities. For higher education, this matters. Universities sit at the intersection of several of the political questions now driving electoral behaviour: economic security, skills, migration, regional inequality and generational opportunity. As the political centre of gravity shifts, so too does the debate around the role universities should play. Even before last week’s local elections, some commentators were already beginning to ponder what the results might mean for higher education. Strong Green performances among younger voters could have pushed the government towards a more expansive offer on student finance or renewed youth mobility arrangements with Europe. Equally, a strong Reform showing was likely to intensify political pressure around vocational education, low-value courses and the wider contribution universities make to local economies. In the end, both dynamics materialised. Labour lost significant ground to Reform in parts of its traditional electoral base, while the Greens expanded their vote share and took control of multiple councils. The result is a political environment in which parties are under growing pressure to demonstrate how their policies will tangibly improve economic security, opportunity and living standards. It was against this backdrop that the Prime Minister sought to reinforce Labour’s offer to younger voters. Plans for an ambitious youth experience scheme promised opportunities to work, study, and live in Europe again, alongside a renewed emphasis on vocational routes through apprenticeships and guarantees of training and work. These priorities are not necessarily contradictory. Both reflect an attempt to build a broader opportunity agenda for young people. But politically, they do send an important signal. When the Prime Minister declares that “society only puts those who go to university on a pedestal” , it suggests a government increasingly focused on parity of esteem between universities and vocational routes – and more willing to question whether universities are delivering sufficient visible value. The sector has struggled to navigate recent political shifts Despite generating around £265 billion annually in economic impact – equivalent to roughly £14 for every £1 of public investment – support for higher education is becoming more contested than at any point in recent memory. This is reflected in growing scepticism about the sector’s expansion and purpose – a trend particularly acute among Reform voters, a clear majority of whom (63%) support reducing international student numbers . Some argue the sector has played a role in creating this vulnerability. The post-Brexit surge in non-EU international students and their dependants – peaking at 143,000 dependent visas in 2023 – undermined confidence that the system was controlled and fair. TBI’s own analysis of Home Office data points to a marked shift in the composition of student migration post-Brexit: in 2023 EU students brought on average around one dependant per 100 arrivals, compared to 32 per 100 among non-EU students and 124 per 100 for Nigerian students – a more than hundredfold increase. That was compounded by record numbers moving onto post-study routes, alongside a marked decline in outflows, with fewer than a third of international students arriving in 2022 leaving the UK within two to three years, compared to over half in the 2010s . The cumulative effect has been to entrench a perception, one particularly salient among the insurgent right, that student migration has become a backdoor into the labour market. At times, the sector has responded defensively to these concerns, tending to dismiss rather than engage with them. That has done little to address underlying scepticism. And yet despite these pressures, universities remain a significant national asset. That is particularly important as rapid technological change reshapes demand for skills and creates new pressures on local economies. AI is now attracting over half of global venture capital investment , signalling the scale of the shift underway. Translating that investment into domestic economic opportunity will depend in part on the capacity of institutions like universities. But this case is not being made clearly or consistently. In this environment, universities cannot rely on residual political goodwill to make the case for them. They will need to show, in tangible ways, what they deliver. That is a test which will outlast any single government. Universities must strengthen their value proposition AI provides one way to meet that challenge. Universities can leverage it in several ways, spanning both how they operate and what they deliver. First, as a source of efficiency gains. Previous TBI analysis suggests existing AI tools could generate up to £40 billion in productivity gains across central government. For universities facing structural deficits, similar reductions in administrative burden and back-office costs offer one of the few credible routes to improving financial sustainability without cutting provision. Second, as an opportunity to improve the student offer. At a time when students are discussed primarily as a cost to the sector, tools that enable more personalised learning, faster feedback and better academic support directly address the government’s (and public’s) quality agenda – and improve the student experience. Third – and perhaps most important in the current political moment – as a vehicle for local delivery. Universities have a critical role to play in supporting local economies, particularly as technological change reshapes demand for skills. This will require a stronger focus on retraining and upskilling, whether through full degrees or more modular lifelong-learning pathways. Yet while universities are well placed to drive social and economic impact in their local areas, this has not always been visible in practice. Institutions that deliver visible local impact – retraining workers, upskilling employers and partnering with colleges – are more likely to be seen as part of the solution to local skills and economic challenges. The sector must define the role of AI – before others do The local election results elucidate a reality well-versed within the sector: higher education is operating on more contested ground than at any point in recent memory. Support can no longer be assumed. This is a critical moment for universities to shape their own value proposition. AI offers one of the clearest means to do so. But the terms of that debate are already being set. Nigel Farage has begun framing AI as a threat to graduate employment, arguing that vocational routes offer greater security against technological disruption. Left in a vacuum, that narrative becomes a case against universities altogether. The task now is to get ahead of that narrative – positioning universities as central institutions in an agenda for social and economic change, regardless of who is leading the charge. Get our updates via email Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Email Address Subscribe The post What do the English local elections tell us about higher education? appeared first on HEPI .

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