Why is London having fewer children?

“Fertility rates are dropping nationwide, but London has seen the biggest drop over in the last decade. Katie Beck looks into the many factors that put people off having children in London, the impact this has on London schools, and argues that the London Assembly’s recommendations for tackling the issue is a promising starting point. Enjoying this post? Then sign up to our newsletter and receive a weekly roundup of all our articles. From 2013 – 2023, nearly 100,000 children between the ages of 0-9 years old disappeared from London. This is the equivalent of 250 primary schools full of children being emptied out. The cause of this drastic population drop is complex, and policy makers are struggling to reverse the trend. So what is causing the declining numbers of young children in the city? What are the impacts of the hollowing out of young people on an urban population? And what can be done about it? Measuring the fertility rate decline Declining numbers of young children is not unique to London. Inverted population pyramids are becoming more widespread in cities and countries around the world. Falling birth rates and a drop in total fertility rates are two major factors contributing to the downward trend. London birth rates fell by 20 per cent in the 2025 compared to 2015 levels and more families are putting off having children. London had the highest average age of mothers having children across England and Wales in 2024. The total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the average number of children born per woman of childbearing age. For population growth to occur, this number, also known as the replacement fertility level, requires an average of 2.1 children per woman. Decline in TFR is happening worldwide (with some exceptions) but the drop in inner London boroughs is particularly significant. London birth rates fell by 20 per cent in the 2025 compared to 2015 levels and more families are putting off having children. While the TFR in England and Wales in 2024 was around 1.41, it reached 0.99 in Islington, 1.05 in Camden and Southwark, and 1.09 in Kensington and Chelsea. Currently the GLA projects that inner London’s child population will continue to fall into the mid-2030s. Social factors contributing to the decline of children numbers What is driving these falling numbers? London is a relatively attractive place to raise a family. A small majority (55 per cent) of prospective parents polled for the 2025 London Assembly report into the causes behind the decline of child numbers say they would like to raise children in London. And a significant number of parents currently raising children in London (40 per cent) say they think it is a suitable place to bring up children. However, things like the cost of housing and childcare can prevent prospective parents from starting a family in London or make it impossible to stay once a baby is born. When asked what their top consideration was when deciding where to raise their families, 58 per cent of parents of children 0-16, said schools. Other top considerations were crime and safety, proximity to social networks, affordable housing and access to green space. These concerns are in line with the factors that paint a picture of how child-friendly a city is. At LSE Cities through the Urban95 Academy we work with urban leaders from around the world on evaluating the child-friendliness of their cities and working on solutions to local challenges. At a basic level, child-friendly cities need to be care-centred, meaning they need to consider the needs and experiences of people who care for children. They need to be well connected, meaning services and social networks need to be proximate to where people live. They need to be accessible to young children and those who care for them, this means safe pedestrian and cycling infrastructure and reliable and affordable public transport. And they need to provide affordable and adequate housing. Without addressing this affordable housing crisis, It is not realistic to expect people will stay in London as their families grow and they need more space, or that young couples will choose London as a place to settle. To be “affordable”, housing costs must be less than five times a household’s annual income. In London the median home costs 11.1 times the median salary and over the past 10 years, housing prices in London have increased faster than earnings.Less than half of London households own their own home and, rent in the capital is 60 per cent higher than the UK as a whole. Without addressing this affordable housing crisis, It is not realistic to expect people will stay in London as their families grow and they need more space, or that young couples will choose London as a place to settle. As families relocate, taking young children or future children with them, the impact is deeply felt in schools. What happens to schools when there aren’t enough children? It’s no surprise that schools top the list of parent’s considerations when choosing where to live. High quality-early childhood development programmes have profound impacts on a child’s development and life outcomes. Many studies show that investment in high-quality early years provision also consistently produces a monetary return on investment. And while London has generous early years provision policies by international comparison, some experts say the policy should go further to have more impact. London’s school system is designed to provide state funded schools in densely populated neighbourhoods with small catchments areas that are walkable by most families who attend. The local school is often the heart of the community. The unifying quality of sharing the school run with neighbours, the mingling of socioeconomically and racially diverse groups at the school gate and a shared ambition for the success of the school and the children who fill it every day by the local community, is an unparalleled social good. But with a significant and sustained drop in the number of children in inner city boroughs, schools and their surrounding communities are seeing negative impacts. The Department for Education provides funding to schools on a per-pupil basis. The more pupils enrolled in a school the more money it receives. As the number of children in the city drops, school rolls fall and take funding down with them. Combine this with the fixed costs of running a school like staffing, utilities, and building maintenance as well as the raising demand for special education needs and disabilities (SEND) provision and it becomes clear why many schools are less able to balance their budgets. Between 2018 and 2019, 100 schools in London have been forced to close or merge and more closures are on the horizon. The overwhelming majority of these are in Inner London where pupil numbers are falling rapidly. Take the borough of Hackney in east London; in 2024 alone six primary schools were closed or merged, and another 6 schools were slated to be closed or merged in 2025. Robin Warren, Executive Head Teacher at the Blossom Federation of schools, a group of three primary schools in Hackney (where I serve as a governor) notes that one potential outcome of school closures is an increase in inequality. He explains that when schools close, those that remain open are often located in areas where higher-income families are more able to live. This can leave some communities with limited school choice and higher levels of disadvantage, including greater proportions of pupils with SEND. London Assembly recommendations In their report the London Assembly makes a number of recommendations to the Mayor to counteract this decline. The ideas include creating new, specific policy provisions like supporting more co-ordination between local authorities. They also include making changes to existing policies like housing and planning, working on a play sufficiency strategy and appointing a “Children’s Ambassador” to work across the GLA and London to push a greater awareness of and responsiveness to children’s and families’ needs. Many of these recommendations are on the right track. Drawing from our research at LSE Cities in a survey of over 300 cities worldwide, one of the overarching challenges reported is the lack of consideration for children and families in urban planning and policy. Global cities in the sample ranked the physical environment, mobility, policy and governance and Inequality as the four most pressing challenges related to young children and caregivers, and London finds itself in a similar position. Meaningful solutions must focus on breaking down the silos between departments and strengthening a system of integrated governance with the wellbeing of children and caregivers at the centre of policy decisions. The creation of a Children’s Ambassador, for example, has potential as long as the role is not a largely symbolic one. There is a danger of sidelining children and their needs as sperate to the normal business of running a city. The needs of urban children and caregivers are not parallel to the core needs of a city, they are the core needs of a city. If each policy and infrastructure decision is measured against how it would impact the babies, toddlers and young children who live in the city and only enacted if it actively betters their lives, then the city as a whole will benefit. Enjoyed this post? Sign up to our newsletter and receive a weekly roundup of all our articles. All articles posted on this blog give the views of the author(s), and not the position of LSE British Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics and Political Science. Image credit: Elena Rostunova on Shutterstock The post Why is London having fewer children? first appeared on LSE British Politics .

Summary generated from the RSS feed of LSE British Politics and Policy. All article rights belong to the original publisher. Click through to read the full piece on blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy.